Graham Norris, an organisational psychologist and futurist, discussing how professionals and organisations navigate uncertainty in a rapidly changing world.
The conversation touches on key themes such as binary thinking in response to complexity, the importance of long-term strategic foresight, and the role of imagination in scenario planning. It also delves into specific future concerns, such as the impact of AI, the growing importance of cybersecurity, and the disruptive potential of advances in personalised healthcare.
He provides insights for leaders on managing uncertainty and building resilience through thoughtful decision-making.
Find out more about Graham and Foresight Psychology -> Here.
Key Takeaways
- Many professionals are grappling with uncertainty in the face of rapid technological changes, but responses vary by industry.
- Binary thinking often arises as a coping mechanism when faced with complex challenges.
- Organisations are shifting towards long-term strategic foresight to better navigate uncertainty.
- Over-reliance on short-term thinking is risky, as it often leads to missed opportunities for future planning.
- The human mind struggles with excessive novelty and change, leading to stress and decision paralysis.
- Scenario planning can help individuals and organisations prepare for multiple potential futures.
- Procrastination and hesitation in decision-making, especially under uncertainty, can have long-term negative impacts.
- There’s a growing recognition of the disruptive potential of AI in fields like organisational psychology and risk management.
- Cybersecurity is a key area of concern for the future, with growing complexity making it harder to manage.
- Energy consumption and its impact on future industries is seen as a major challenge.
- Advances in personalised healthcare and biotechnology are expected to shape the future significantly.
- Leaders must balance optimism and risk aversion when forecasting future trends to maintain flexibility.
Innovation
- The concept of strategic foresight, a niche but growing field, is being used by forward-thinking companies to manage uncertainty by thinking about the possibilities of the future.
- Scenario planning is promoted as an imaginative process to reduce stress about the future and build resilience, even when exact predictions are impossible.
- Leveraging probability-based decision-making models, familiar in the credit and risk world, to help organisations weigh the impact and likelihood of future events.
Key Discussion Points
- Uncertainty triggers binary thinking, which can oversimplify complex issues.
- Short-term decision-making often overlooks long-term implications, particularly in sectors like oil and gas.
- Strategic foresight and scenario planning are emerging as important tools to manage future uncertainties.
- Companies’ engagement with technology varies widely, leading to different industry experiences with change.
- The human mind’s need for certainty makes it resistant to unpredictable futures.
- The process of thinking through future scenarios is as important as the accuracy of predictions.
- Cybersecurity is increasingly complex and poses a major challenge for businesses.
- Energy consumption, driven by technology, is expected to increase significantly.
- Advances in healthcare and personalisation could revolutionise how we approach medicine and wellbeing.
- Procrastination is a psychological response to uncertainty and needs to be addressed decisively.
- Organisations must balance pessimism and optimism in planning for future opportunities and risks.
- Futurists tend to be more optimistic because they are better prepared for change, having thought through potential scenarios.
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